Carlos Mendoza

Division of Engineering
Colorado School of Mines
Host: Gary Olhoeft

Matthew Haney
Beth Burton
Justin Modroo

Professor, Atmospheric Sciences
Florida State University
Host: Terry Young

Chester Weiss

William Abriel

Colin T. Barnett

Professor, Geological Sciences
UC Santa Barbara
Host: Warren Hamilton

Alex Gret
Nicole Pendrigh

Abstract
The circum-Caribbean region has a documented history of large damaging tsunamis that have affected coastal regions. Tsunamis are generally generated or triggered by large "tsunamigenic" earthquakes that deform the ocean floor, producing long-period water waves that traverse the open sea. When these water waves reach the shore, the rapid reduction in water depth can result in a rapid increase in wave height, posing a potential hazard to coastal communities. Tsunami warning systems are currently in place in other areas of the world (e.g., the circum-Pacific region, Japan, western Chile, southern Alaska, and the US west coast). These tsunami warning centers are primarily operated by the oceanographic community and provide notification in the event of the occurrence of a large, possibly tsunamigenic earthquake. Recently, the need to establish a system of rapid notification for tsunami alerting in the Caribbean region has resulted in a proposed emergent regional Tsunami Warning System for the area of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Such a tsunami-notification system could serve as a model for other similar programs in the region and could additionally be expanded to form a Caribbean-wide tsunami alerting system.

Tsunami alerting in the Caribbean must necessarily rely on the rapid calculation of earthquake source parameters that include the location and magnitude of the seismic source. The earthquake location identifies the position of a possible tsunamigenic event, and the magnitude (size) of the earthquake provides an initial indication of the potential for tsunami generation. In addition, information on the orientation and nature of the earthquake fault may provide insight into the likelihood of tsunami generation, since tsunamis are more effectively generated by earthquakes that produce vertical deformation of the seafloor. The use of regionally-recorded seismic waveforms, for example, can provide a timely estimate of both the magnitude and faulting mechanism of the earthquake. Also, the rapid implementation of more sophisticated seismologic methods that identify the pattern of co-seismic rupture on the fault may provide additional constraints on the potential tsunami hazard, particularly for locally-generated tsunamis.

Biography
Dr. Carlos Mendoza has almost 20 years of professional experience in the field of seismology gained primarily from his work with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and from academic appointments at the university level. In addition, he has worked as a private consultant for ABS Group Consulting in Lakewood, Colorado, providing a full range of professional service in seismic hazards assessment, seismotectonic modeling, and strong ground-motion prediction.

Dr. Mendoza obtained his Ph.D. from the Colorado School of Mines in 1985, joining the USGS National Earthquake Information Center in Golden, Colorado, where he conducted independent investigations on earthquake source properties, global seismicity patterns, and aftershock occurrence. His analyses of seismic waves recorded at near-source, regional, and global distances resulted in several important publications on the rupture process of major plate-boundary earthquakes in South America, Central America, Mexico and Japan. He additionally served as Chief of the Earthquake Information Section at the USGS during 1995 to 1997, being primarily responsible for the transfer of earthquake data and information to scientific institutes, other governmental agencies, and the general public. He also helped coordinate the publication of several technical geophysical maps, including an updated Seismicity Map of the Caribbean produced in cooperation with the Middle America Seismograph Consortium and a North America Natural Hazards Map published by the National Geographic Society.

Dr. Mendoza has participated in numerous international efforts devoted to the coordination of cooperative geophysical activities in Latin America and the Caribbean through direct participation in the Middle America Seismograph Consortium and the Pan American Institute of Geography and History, where he currently serves as President of the Commission on Geophysics. Other international work has included the presentation of technical workshops and lectures at universities in both Latin America and Japan, technical support to the U.S. Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance in post-earthquake reconstruction efforts in Colombia, and official participation in Latin American activities of the International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction.

Dr. Mendoza has held academic appointments at the National Autonomous University of Mexico and at the University of Puerto, teaching basic and advanced courses in seismology, conducting independent seismologic research, and advising students in earthquake investigations. At the University of Puerto Rico, he coordinated earthquake studies of scientific and public interest as the Research Director of the Puerto Rico Seismic Network.

Abstract
Any research program requires some sort of safety guidlines. Dr. Robert (Bob) Rothe will explain one type of nuclear experiment, called a critical experiment, for which safety considerations are much more complicated than those in a less-exotic experiment. The Rocky Flats Critical Mass Laboratory, northwest of Denver, was one of half a dozen laboratories in the United States performing such experiments throughout the last half of the 20th century. He will also give a brief history of Rocky Flats, interspersed with his own personal experiences with enriched uranium and weapons-grade plutonium in critical and near critical experiments. He will also outline some of the safety guidelines developed and illustrate some humorous (and some not so funny) examples of what was learned along the way should NOT be done. Come and share this exploration into scientific fields not normally found at Colorado School of Mine

Biography
Bob first showed an interest in physics at the age of 12. He studied the family's encyclopedia memorizing densities of elements and learning about the Periodic Chart of the Nuclides. At this early age, he now recalls wondering what on earth "4f" electrons could be. That time being just after World War II, he wondered if these electrons were not eligible for the draft. At Knox College in Illinois, he was the first student in the school's 137 year history to graduate with honors in two disciplines: physics and mathematics. Bob earned his PhD from the University of Wisconsin in 1964. His thesis dealt with isotopic spin and nuclear reactions involving charged particles and the lightest of nuclei--deuterons upon Helium. Compare that with his later professional work (see below).

Immediately following the completion of his PhD, Bob began workign at Rocky Flats performing "criticality safety" experiments involving enriched uranium and plutonium. Note, he was now involved with neutral particles (neutrons) incident upon some of the heaviest elements--the opposite of his PhD studies. He reamined at Rocky Flats for the rest of his professional career, over 30 years, during which time he performed about 1700 critical and critical-approach safety-related experiments. He has been involved in the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and part of the small team writing an American National Standard on "Raschig rings": ANSI/ANS 8.5. He will discuss the importance of these rings in nuclear criticality safety.

Bob received Rockwell International's coveted Engineer-of-the-Year Award in 1981. This was an annual award with candidates selected from Rockwell's international offices. As well as having a wonderful professional career, Bob and his wife, Judy, have been foster parents to 90 children and host parents to dozens of foreign exchange students through Youth For Understanding (YFU). Bob is also an avid model railroader and is the 281st "Master Model Railroader". He has taught Colorado History and has sung in 13 operas.

Abstract
Uncertainties in time-lapse seismic interpretation for dynamic reservoir characterization of clastic reservoirs can be minimized statistically, by correlating multicomponent seismic data and petrophysical parameters using a multivariate Bayes PDF (Probability Density Function) non-parametric classification tool applied to geologic facies, quantifying the risk in geophysical reservoir description and monitoring.

The methodology applied involves the identifcation of reservoir and seal units by analyzing lithologic units in depth, their petrophysical properties and seismic response. In that regard, parameters such as acoustic and elastic impedances, extracted from well logs, are correlated with multicomponent seismic inversion impedances. These results are trained and validated using a multivariate PDF pattern classification algorithm, which isolates all different facies and/or reservoir units statistically, in order to quantify the probability of predicting distinct geologic facies from seismic inversion response. Likewise, other reservoir parameteres such as Vp/Vs ratio, Poisson's ratio and Lama constants's ratio are also compared with well data to discriminate reservoir units, seal units and potential gas migration after CO2 injection, for reservoir monitoring purposes.

Complementary seismic interpretation is also helpful to describe anisotropic trends and reservoir heterogeneities of importance for fracture trend analysis, as well as structural seals and potential fingering and/or migration paths.

Altogether, this geophysical analysis can be integrated from well and seismic data to properly characterize the lithologic composition of the reservoir rock and its storage/flow capacity in time after the CO2 injection takes place.

Biography
Cristian H. Malaver holds a B.Sc. degree in Civil Engineering from the Universidad de los Andes in Bogota, Colombia, with a minor (M.E. joint program) in seismic engineering, focused on applied geophysical methods. During the last 8 years, he has worked in oil & gas exploration for a services company (GAPS Ltd.) in South America, where he has been exposed to all kinds of geologic, technical and environmental challenges, which allowed him to explore geophysical areas such as quality control, data acquisition, project management, seismic design and data processing. He has also worked for Occidental Oil & Gas Corp. in the Woldwide Exploration Division as a geophysics intern. Currently, he is pursuing a M.Sc. degree in geophysics at Colorado School of Mines (CSM) with a minor in geology. He also works as a research assistant for the Reservoir Characterizaton Project at CSM. His main areas of interest involve: geophysical exploration and prospect evaluation of petroleum systems, integrated reservoir characterization, petrophysics, multicomponent seismic analysis (design, acquisition, processing, interpretation, inversion, attributes) and time-lapse monitoring.

Abstract
Although Biot's theory of wave propagation in poro-elastic media was first proposed in the mid 1950's, it was not until the early 1980's that research attempting to prove the existence of the separate slow and fast compressional waves which Biot proposed. It is Biot's second compressional wave, known as the slow P-wave or Biot slow P-wave, which experimenters have focused on in the past two decades. This highly attenuative, frequency-dependent wave was not detected in natural rock cores until 1996 by petrophysicists at Delft University.

The most recent research being conducted by the Center for Petrophysics at CSM aims to investigate the relationship between the slow P-wave and the permeability of natural rocks. Previous experimental results in a vertical shock tube detected the presence of this wave in rock cores with permeabilities as low as 200 milliDarcies. Forward modeling of the CENPET's experiments was conducted using a 2D finite-difference Fortran code based on Biot theory developed by the Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics in Moscow. Although modeled arrival times agreed favorably, some amplitude discrepancies existed modeled and experimental results in previous experiments. A new experimental configuration developed for this thesis has enabled the detection of the slow P-wave at lower permeabilities, and has shown great potential for linking the properties of the measured slow P-wave to the permeability of the rocks. Ultimately we foresee a new method for permeability characterization with a formation wireline tester.

Biography
Jonathan Woolley grew up in Rhode Island and received his Bachelor of Science in geophysical engineering from the Colorado School of Mines in May 2001. He spent the summers of 1998 and 1999 working on Western Geophysical seismic crews in California and Mexico. In the following years he has held internships with Phillips, Marathon, BP, and Pioneer Natural Resources working in numerous aspects of hydrocarbon exploration and development including seismic data analysis in west Texas, multicomponent VSP reservoir characterization on Alaska's North Slope, and AVO modeling in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. He is currently working with the Center for Petrophysics at CSM under the direction of Professor ir. Max Peeters. He plans to complete his M.S. degree in geophysics in Spring 2004.

Abstract
The design, construction and operation of geotechnical engineering systems will evolve rapidly during the next decade due to the infusion of information and wireless technology, sensor networks, and automation. In this seminar, Dr. Mooney will discuss advances in the emerging fields of geotechnical health monitoring and intelligent geosystems, and describe his research involving intelligent soil compaction, subsurface infrastructure monitoring and intelligent geoconstruction.

Biography
Dr. Mike Mooney joined the Engineering Division at the Colorado School of Mines in January 2003 after seven years as an Assistant then Associate Professor at the University of Oklahoma. He received Ph.D., M.S. and B.S. degrees in Civil Engineering from Northwestern University, University of California, and Washington University, respectively. He also received a B.A. in Physics from Hastings College, Nebraska. Dr. Mooney was awarded the 2003 Arthur Casagrande Professional Development Award from ASCE and a National Science Foundation Career Award in 2000. His technical and educational research is supported by the National Science Foundation, the Department of Transportation, the Federal Aviation Administration, and industry.

Abstract
There are roughly 70 active and potentially active volcanoes in the U.S., so the Volcano Hazards Program (VHP) of the US Geological Survey has a lot of territory to cover. U.S. volcanoes include the well-known (and much-studied) basaltic shield volcanoes of Kilauea and Mauna Loa in Hawaii, the subduction-related arc volcanoes of the Cascades, Alaska and the Marianas, and two large silicic caldera systems (Long Valley and Yellowstone). This diversity in type of volcano and location has required USGS scientists to develop a wide range of monitoring strategies, adapted to the behavior of the volcanoes and their proximity to populated areas, as well as to the needs of the communities at risk from volcanic hazards.

The principal phenomena that VHP scientists monitor in order to detect and assess volcanic unrest are (1) volcano-related seismicity, (2) deformation of the volcanic edifice, (3) variations in emission of gases of deep-seated origin, especially SO2 and CO2, and (4) significant changes in thermal signatures. During an eruption, they must document the behavior of the volcano, reporting on the presence of ash clouds, lava flows, lahars, or other hazards, in addition to monitoring all of these same parameters. USGS scientists have become adept at drawing on all sources of information, and routinely supplement ground-based monitoring networks (especially important for seismic and deformation monitoring) with a range of remote sensing techniques (including airborne sensors and satellite imagery). Both ground-based and remotely sensed data are critical to effective volcano monitoring, so the VHP will continue to expand its use of both, in support of volcano hazards reduction in the U.S.

Biography
Dr. Rosalind Helz joined the U.S Geological Survey in 1968 and has worked for the USGS her entire career. She grew up in Honolulu, Hawaii, where she first became interested in volcanoes. Her initial position with the USGS focused on laboratory-based work on problems in Hawaiian volcanology, but her research soon expanded to include topical field studies in Hawaii, including a long-term investigation of Kilauea Iki lava lake and several studies of recent Kilauean eruptions. Her most recent paper in this area is a study of the thermal efficiency of lava tubes at Kilauea, published in 2003. In addition to her studies on Hawaiian volcanoes, she has worked on the mafic sills of the Stillwater Complex in Montana, and on the basalts of the Columbia Plateau, Washington.

After a tour of duty in the Director's Office as Hazards Coordinator in the mid-nineties, Dr. Helz returned to the Geologic Division and the Volcano Hazards Program in the fall of 1998, with the mission of expanding the use of remote sensing data by the USGS Volcano Hazards Program. In support of that activity she has participated in interagency and international activities assessing how best to support disaster response with satellite imagery, as well as in the development of new remote-sensing activities within the Volcano Hazards Program.

Dr. Helz holds degrees from Stanford (BSc. 1965) and Penn State (M.Sc., 1968; Ph.D., 1978). Much of her career has been at USGS headquarters in Reston, VA but she has also spent two years in Menlo Park (8/81-6/82 and 10/98-6/99), a year as a visiting scientist at the University of Manchester, England (8/89-7/90), and has racked up a cumulative total of a year's time at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, in a series of shorter visits. She is a Fellow of GSA and MSA, and a member of AGU, IAVCEI, ASPRS, the Geological Society of Washington, and the Association for Women Geoscientists, and served as MSA lecturer in 1996-97.

Abstract
Exploring the subsurface requires an understanding of the relationships among physical processes that occur on multiple length and time scales. The length scale used in the laboratory differs by several orders of magnitude from the length scales in the field. In a fracture, chemical interactions between pore fluids and the fracture walls occur locally on the sub-micron scale but affect wave propagation occurring along the length of the fracture, a length scale of hundreds of microns to meters or more. For a fracture partially saturated with gas and water, the distribution of these two fluid phases is affected not only by the intrinsic lengths of the fracture geometry but also by time-dependent processes that alter the local capillary pressure which controls the phase distribution. Thus, fractures in rock are susceptible to alteration through time-dependent processes such fluid invasion, chemical dissolution, chemical precipitation, and stress or pressure changes. Advancements in laboratory methods have made it possible to image and quantify the fundamental behavior of fractures.

For this presentation, I will discuss the various length scales involved in the laboratory when investigating fluid flow and seismic wave propagation in a fractured medium. In addition, I will describe seismic imaging techniques that enable us to visualize and quantify the heterogeneity in the fractured medium caused by mineral deposition, by non-uniform stress fields and during fracturing.

Biography
Laura J. Pyrak-Nolte is a Professor in the Department of Physics at Purdue University with a courtesy appointment in the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. She received her B.S. in Engineering Science from SUNY at Buffalo, her M.S. in Geophysics from VPI&SU, and her Ph.D. in Material Science and Mineral Engineering from the University of California, Berkeley. In 1995, she received the Schlumberger Lecture Award from the International Society of Rock Mechanics. Prof. Pyrak-Nolte received the Young Investigator Awards from the National Science Foundation and the Office of Naval Research. Her interests include applied geophysics, experimental and theoretical seismic wave propagation, rock mechanics, and fluid flow through earth materials.

Abstract
In the last few years, new instrumentation and new analytical techniques have increased our understanding of the internal seismogenic structures of the Long Valley Caldera and the processes driving caldera unrest tremendously. Applying the double-difference earthquake relocation algorithm (Waldhauser and Ellsworth, 2000), we have been able to accurately map the active faults in the caldera area and precisely track spatial and temporal changes in seismicity. Combining observations of seismicity patterns with modeling of highly-sensitive strainmeter and tiltmeter data and knowledge of the earthquakes' source processes from the borehole and surface seismograms has provided important leverage in advancing our understanding of deformation sources, pathways of fluid movement, and the physical processes triggering seismicity in the caldera.
For example, re-analysis of an unusual earthquake swarm associated with magmatic intrusion beneath Mammoth Mountain in 1989 has revealed that most earthquakes occurred on two structures, a near-vertical plane at 7-9 km depth that has been interpreted as an intruding dike, and a circular ring-like structure at ~5.5 km depth, above the inferred dike. Fault-plane solutions indicate that in 1989 the seismicity ring slipped as a ring-normal fault as the center of the mountain rose with respect to the surrounding crust. Seismicity migrated around the ring, away from the underlying dike at a rate of ~ 0.4 km/month, suggesting that these earthquakes were triggered by the movement of over-pressured magmatically-derived fluids away from their source. This ring structure may provide a pathway for the continuing degassing of magmatic CO2 that has been observed around the flanks of Mammoth Mountain since 1989.
In the central caldera, inflation of the caldera's resurgent dome accelerated in late 1997. Localized deformation and seismicity in the caldera's western south moat increased dramatically on November 22, 1997, the peak of this unrest episode. High precision hypocenter locations reveal that the November 22 swarm migrated ~4 km upward and westward along the west south moat seismic zone away from the initiation region at a rate of ~0.05 m/s. The seismograms of some earthquakes in this migration sequence were enriched in low frequencies, implying that fluids were involved in the earthquake source processes. Total moment release recorded on the Postpile borehole dilatometer exceeded the seismic moment release for these earthquakes by more than 80% indicating that significant volume change occurred at the time of these earthquakes. Modeling of data from strainmeters, tiltmeters, and a few of the 2-color EMD lines in the region suggests that a secondary intrusion, trending N70W, dipping to the northeast from 4 to 7 km depth, occurred at the time of the seismicity migration. The location of the intrusion coincides with the linear feature termed "SWRD1" by Prejean et al. (2002) that was seismically active earlier in the unrest episode, from August to October, 1997. This feature may be a pathway bridging the west south moat seismic zone and the primary magmatic inflation source beneath the caldera's resurgent dome. Additional instrumentation will be necessary if we are to obtain good constraints on the physics of complex events like this in the future.

Biography
Stephanie Prejean, originally from Louisiana, attended the University of Memphis where she became interested in geophysics and worked as a research assistant at the Center for Earthquake Research and Information for two years. After receiving her B.S. in 1996, she pursued a PhD at Stanford University, with Mark Zoback and Bill Ellsworth as her advisors. Upon graduation in 2002, she took a postdoc position with the USGS, Menlo Park, California with David Hill as her supervisor. Most recently, Stephanie has moved to a new position with the USGS at the Alaska Volcano Observatory in Anchorage, continuing research in volcano seismology.

Abstract
The use of ground penetrating radar (GPR) to investigate hydrocarbon spill sites has been extensively researched over the past decade. In particular, research involving light non-aqueous phase liquids (LNAPLs) has generated great interest. Results from field investigations involving natural spills and from controlled-spill experiments tend to be contradictory in regards to the expected and observed GPR responses. In separate controlled-spill experiments, both an increase and a decrease in amplitudes have been observed at the top of the saturated zone, resulting in differing theories to explain the observations. In data acquired at "natural" hydrocarbon spill sites, however, there tend to be shadow zones over areas with contaminant pools that are not present in the controlled-spill experiments. Because LNAPLs are resistive and therefore thought to be conducive to radar signal propagation, another series of theories has evolved to explain this apparent attenuation phenomenon.
In an attempt to better define the cause of these contaminant-related shadow zones in GPR data, a multi-fold GPR dataset acquired by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at a crude oil spill research site near Bemidji, MN is being analyzed. This dataset includes two, parallel profiles: one acquired over a known oil pool and the other over an uncontaminated area. The focus of the analysis is on determining the dominant attenuation mechanism with the ultimate goal of determining the most correct theory.

Biography
Beth is originally from New York and received her B.S. degree in geophysical engineering from Colorado School of Mines in May 1999. After working for Phillips Petroleum as a seismic processor for one year, she returned to Mines to pursue an M.S. degree with a focus on near surface geophysics. Her main interests include the application of geophysics to groundwater problems such as contaminant hydrogeology and groundwater exploration. She is currently working at the USGS on her thesis research as well as on other various projects. Dr. Gary Olhoeft is her advisor, and she plans to graduate in December 2004.

Abstract
Every year, hundreds of people are killed by snow avalanches. Victims suffocate to death within the first minutes after burial. Personal radio transceivers and a partner are the best method for surviving an avalanche. However, most victims are not equipped with a personal transceiver or it is separated from them by the forces of the avalanche. Search and rescue teams are then limited to a search probe line or rescue dogs. Probe lines require many people and consume too much time for a successful rescue. Rescue dogs are more efficient than the probe line, but have fundamental flaws limiting their effectiveness because of the dispersal, masking or trapping of scent. Ground penetrating radar (GPR) could provide a possible solution as snow is an excellent propagation media for GPR waves and a human body is a high conductivity and high dielectric permittivity contrast relative to snow, serving as an ideal reflector target for GPR. However, it is unknown how GPR will respond to the unfavorably changing dielectric properties as a body freezes, and if GPR can distinguish a human body from other natural and man made objects in the avalanche debris field. A body mass equivalent (BME) to a human was buried in snow, and the GPR response and core temperature were recorded versus time as the BME froze in a simulated avalanche burial at a cooperating ski area. A freshly euthanized pig was used as the BME, due to the similarity in properties to that of a human body. The experimental measurements show that it takes about 110 hours for the 145 pound BME to completely freeze while buried in snow with an ambient temperature of -7 °C. Throughout the course of the experiment, the BME could be uniquely identified relative to other buried natural and man made objects by its imaging GPR signature. Modeling showed this was a consequence of a unique phase shift from constructive and destructive interference occurring in a thin layer sequence at the BME-air-snow interface. This resulted from initial body heat melting of snow, development of a thin air pocket, and subsequent refreezing. Thus, GPR has the potential to image, identify and locate a human body and therefore possibly save lives, or at a minimum, help recover the body before spring thaw.

Biography
Justin is originally from Billings, Montana, and received his B.S. degree in geophysics from Colorado School of Mines in May 2001. Besides pursuing his Master's degree in geophysics, Justin is a professional skier, ranked third in North America on the Big Mountain Freeskiing Tour. He loves skiing, fly fishing, backpacking and hanging out with his cat "Montana."

Abstract
The importance of faults as delimiters of compartments in hydrocarbon reservoirs cannot be stressed enough. The role of faults, however, is complicated by their dual nature as both fluid seals and conduits. Classifying a fault as sealing or conducting typically demands extensive knowledge of a basin's geologic history, core samples, and well logs. The relevant time scale for the fault to act as a seal must also be taken into account. For instance, it is widely believed that most faults, even some with only meters of throw, seal on the production time scale, whereas they may generally seal or conduct on geologic time scales. Geologically sealing faults can pose a serious drilling hazard in the subsurface, forcing the abandonment of several multi-million dollar wells.

A 3D seismic survey shot by Shell in 1992 at Blocks 314, 315, 330, and 331 of the South Eugene Island field, offshore Louisiana, contains reflections from a major growth fault. I find that differences in pore pressure of up to 1800 psi across the fault give rise to the fault-plane reflections over a large portion of the fault. The pressure differences are seismically detectable since pore pressures that exceed the hydrostatic pressure lower the seismic velocity. Thus, the presence of the reflections point to the fault providing a significant seal. After applying a simple processing scheme to highlight the fault-plane reflections, I extract the amplitude of the fault-plane reflections on the fault-plane itself. The areas of strong reflection amplitude correlate well
with the geology and known areas of overpressure. The ability of the reflected waves to sense
the sharp onsets of overpressure has implications for pre-drill prediction of potential drilling hazards.

Additionally, over a limited portion of the fault, strong reflectivity correlates with high pore pressures that are known from well-logging to be limited to the fault zone itself. Thus, the strong reflectivity supports a previous interpretation, from the drilling records, that the high pore pressure constitutes a spatially limited fluid pulse caught in the act of ascending the fault.

Biography
Matt Haney received a B.S. in geophysical engineering from the Colorado School of Mines. As an undergraduate, Matt held summer internships with the Center for Earthquake Research and Information in Memphis, Tennessee, and at Phillips Petroleum Company in Bellaire, Texas. During Summer 2002, Matt worked at Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque, New Mexico, as a member of the Geophysical Technology Department and, specifically, as part of the Small Sharpe Seismic Team (SSST). While at Sandia, he explored time-reversal of seismic waves and the detectin of localized high-porosity inclusions int he Central Basin Platform using a 3D finite-difference modeling program. Matt's thesis research focuses on fault zones and other research interests include multiple wave scattering, localization, multiscale edge analysis to determine the total magnetization direction of ore bodies, and source independent methods for the calculation of 3D envelopes of potential field data.

Abstract
Using as many as 64 different seasonal forecasts runs per season, from a variety of coupled (atmosphere, ocean) models we have prepared consensus seasonal forecasts using a total of about 4000 experiments. This also includes the ECMWF'S DEMETER database. This is one of the largest databases on coupled models. The monsoon region was selected to examine the predictability issue. The methodology involves:

• Construction of seasonal anomalies of all model forecasts for a number of variables such as surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, precipitation, 850 and 200 hPa winds.
• Exploring skills of ensemble mean
• Exporing skills of FSU multimodel super ensemble, where we use the following different algorithms:
  • Gauss Jordan elimination method for the covariance matrix
  • Singular value decomposition (SVD) to improve as above
  • A neural network approach to enhance the training phase of the super ensemble
  • Use of synthetic databases to enhance the number of memberes and the skill of forecasts and
  • Use of a bootstrap method to enhance the database of the super ensemble.

The metrics for forecasts evaluation include:

• Computation of hindcase and verification anomalies from model/observed climatology
• Time-series of specific climate indices
• Standard deterministic ensemble mean scores such as anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean square skill score (MSSS)
• Probabilistic skill measures such as reliability diagrams, relative operating characteristic (ROC), Brier skill scores, potential economic value curves and significance tests for these skill scores
• Scatter diagrams of area-averaged skill measures and probability density function sof grid point skill scores.

The results were deliberately prepared to match the metrics used by ECMWF'S DEMETER model, Palmer et al., (2003). Invariable in all modes of evaluation the results from the FSU multi model superensemble demonstrate far greater skill than those obtained in earlier studies. Our specific enquiry was on this question: Is it going to be wetter or drier, warmer or colder than the long-term recent climatology of the monsoon, and where and when during the next season? These results are most encouraging; suggesting that this vast database and our methodology are able to provide some useful answers to the seasonal climate forecast issue that are better than what is possible from the use of conventional ensemble averaging.

Biography
Dr. Krishnamurti is currently the Lawton Distinguished Professor, Department of Meteorology, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida. Curriculum Vita.

Abstract
Among the various geophysical technologies that have found a niche in shallow subsurface characterization and monitoring is the electromagnetic induction (EMI) method—a method that maps the spatial variability in ground conductivity arising from lithologic changes and the presence of pore fluids. Interestingly, a growing body of evidence suggests that the electrical structure of some geologic materials is inherently fractal, presumed to arise from the dynamical systems that generate and alter the formation and its overlying soil. These observations challenge the applicability of the standard modeling paradigm, which rests squarely on the assumption of a spatially smooth (or at least piecewise smooth) distribution of physical parameters within the subsurface. As an alternative, and drawing upon near–surface EMI data
recently collected from geologically distinct sites throughout New Mexico and Texas, we investigate the concepts of fractal signals and random walks through spatially-correlated heterogeneous media as a means to describe the observed variations in shallow subsurface EM response. This framework suggests that the diffusion process in geologic media may be described more completely by a modified, fractional–order diffusion equation which is derived from a more generalized form of the standard Maxwell equations.

Biography
Chester Weiss received a Ph.D. in geophysics from Texas A&M in 1998 and filled a postdoctorate position at Sandia National Laboratories until 2000 where he is now a senior member of the Technical Staff. He was honored by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography as a Cecil and Ida Green Fellow in 2002 where he also was Visiting Scientist. Dr. Weiss describes his research interests below:

My research interests revolve around the use of electromagnetic methods
to improve our understanding of the Earth’s internal constitution and the
processes therein. I am trained as a classical solid Earth geophysicist. However, during my
current tenure at Sandia National Laboratories, the research focus has been directed toward topics which at first glance have little bearing on “improving our understanding the Earth’s internal constitution and the processes therein.” Indeed, the relationship between sub–salt hydrocarbon imaging and the fate of subducting lithospheric slabs is difficult to ascertain. Yet,
it bears comment that perhaps one of the single greatest impediments in realizing the full potential of electromagnetic (EM) methods for addressing relevant geologic questions is the extreme computational burden of the forward and inverse problems. This was certainly the case with my own graduate work, even though I was at times fully immersed in a sub–culture of 3D finite element modeling and nonlinear optimization. Gaining expertise in high performance computing as it pertains to the EM induction problem is one of the greatest benefits arising from my National Laboratory experience. I am keenly interested in taking that experience and steering my intellectual energies again on matters of a more geological nature; specifically, global geomagnetic induction, geophysical investigation of near–surface, and marine electromagnetics of the crust and lithosphere.

Abstract
During the past 10 years, seismic imaging and analysis has expanded its role from structural exploration to reservoir description and property analysis. As experiences have developed, the description of the earth required to image and analyze the reservoirs has in many cases required significantly more complexity than anticipated. It is necessary to understand the range of earth complexity of the overburden to determine the accuracy of the seismic imaging, and the complexity of reservoir rocks to correctly risk quality and connectivity of flow compartments in oil and gas fields.

Seismic technology is a complex business. Historically, imaging and analysis tools have adopted or required simplifying assumptions in order to complete projects in a timely manner or simplify the descriptive analysis. Many of these assumptions are in widespread use today. Examples of this can be seen in seismic data processing applications that rely on a "flat earth" simplification, or reservoir analysis based solely on "bright spot" amplitude anomalies.

The difficulty facing earth scientists today is to understand, use and describe the right level of earth complexity for reservoir discovery and analysis. Using more complicated tools than necessary destroys project value by spending too much money and/or extending project time lines unnecessarily. However, using a tool that is too simple for a complex earth leads to a false sense of certainty and a commonly incorrect prediction (often wrong but never in doubt!).

In this talk, I'll review case histories of structural imaging, stratigraphic imaging, velocity complexity, and prediction of reservoir, pore pressure, and fluid flow from a mixture of geological environments around the world. I'll attempt to show the significance of earth complexity in the prediction analyses and the tools required handling it. Finally, I'll cover an overview of connecting the earth complexity to resource and risk prediction in resource exploration and development.

Biography
William Abriel (Bill) received his B.S. in earth science (1975) and his M.S. in Geophysics (1978) from the Pennsylvania State University. He joined Chevron oil Company in the fall of 1978 and worked for Chevron in New Orleans, Los Angeles, Perth Australia, and San Ramon California from 1978 to the present. During this time, he has been involved in many interesting projects in operations, seismic research and deployment. Bill was the first Chevron user or developer of the following technologies: 3D subsalt depth migration, 3D prestack depth migration, reservoir estimates from 3D seismic amplitudes, reservoir characterization from seismic data for reservoir simulation, 3D AVO, 3DDMO, dual sensor bottom cable acquisition, turning wave migration, and forming a team of geology, geophysics and reservoir engineering. During this time, Bill has worked on projects in areas including Gulf of Mexico offshore and onshore, North Atlantic (USA, Canada, UK, and Africa), West Australia, Brazil, China, and Saudi Arabia.

Bill is an active member of the SEG, EAEG and AAPG. He has served on the board of The Leading Edge, and as an associate editor of Geophysics. Bill also serves with the SEG Development Geophysics and Global Affairs committees, and is the current President of the Bay Area Geophysical Society. He has been a co-chair of technical meetings including the first SPE deepwater conference ('97), the Latin American Geophysical Convention (Caracas '98), and the Society of Brazilian Geophysics (Salvador '01).

Bill's interests include the pleasures of life with his law professor wife, raising three children, and coaching lacrosse

Abstract
There has been fair discussion among mining geophysicists recently regarding the seemingly poor success in exploration over the last two decades, despite the major advances in technology. While the cost of making a new big discovery has been rising, the rate of such discoveries has been steadily falling during this period.

To some extent, I think this poor success rate has resulted from the weak emphasis on grassroots, or greenfields, exploration. Because of the low prices that prevailed during the 90’s, most major mining companies tended to focus on near-mine, or brownfields, exploration. This strategy has been successful in the short term: by diligent exploration around its mine at Yanacocha in Peru, for example, Newmont managed to increase the gold reserves there from a mere 2 million ounces in 1993 to around 35 million ounces today. In the long term, however, a quite different strategy is going to be required. We need to look for brand new deposits to replace today’s operating mines. Even giant Yanacocha is currently expected to be worked out in 15 years.

Another possible reason that has been put forward for the lack of new discoveries is that the explorers have been overwhelmed by the volume of data and are not taking full advantage of the latest technologies. It has also been suggested that we don’t know precisely what we are looking for, especially in the case of a gold deposit whose physical properties are typically little different from the surrounding host rock. As Dr Norman Paterson has aptly put it, we need to take a mental leap beyond the old, comfortable ways of interpreting single anomalies to considering new ways of characterizing the whole environment of an orebody.

This seminar will present a new statistical approach to the interpretation of large, multidisciplinary grassroots data sets. The first step is to establish a correlation between the various data sets and any already known mineral deposits. This is essentially characterizing the environment. The second step is to apply the correlation in a predictive manner, i.e., to thoroughly scour every data set for similar environments or patterns. The approach is effectively a nonlinear inversion process first to establish and then to apply an exploration model.

As an illustration of this approach, a standard data set from the Great Basin of Nevada will be examined. This input folio is comprised of twenty-five layers of mixed geological, geochemical and geophysical exploration data covering an area of approximately 100,000 square km. The outcome will be a suite of predictive target maps based on various combinations of these multiple data sets. This model is specific to Nevada, but the approach can be applied to any mature exploration district. It is expected that this new way of treating large data sets will in due course lead to a surge of profitable discoveries.

Biography
Colin Barnett recently retired as Director of Exploration Technology with Newmont Mining Corporation, the world’s largest gold producer. He received a B.A. and M.A. in Natural Sciences (Geology) from Cambridge University, an M.Sc. and DIC in Geophysics from Imperial College, and a Ph.D. in Geophysics from Colorado School of Mines.

He joined Newmont as a research geophysicist in 1972 and worked for that company for nearly thirty years, occupying the positions of Chief Geophysicist, Director of Geophysics, and eventually Director of Exploration Technology. His career in exploration has taken him to every corner of the globe in the search for base and precious metals, diamonds, and industrial minerals. At an early stage in this career he was project leader of the Newmont team which developed the first deep penetrating digital time domain electromagnetic system.

When he is not exploring for gold or doing geophysics, you are likely to find him on a small boat, somewhere offshore like the Western Isles of Scotland, with his family who are also keen sailors.

Abstract
Using computer animations, maps, and landscape images, Professor Atwater will illustrate the Cretaceous-Cenozoic plate tectonic evolution of Western North America. In particular, she will describe: 1) the longevity and immensity of our subduction history, 2) the lovely havoc created by the Laramide "flat-slab" subduction episode and its afteermath and, finally, 3) the creation and evolution of the San Andreas plate boundary system. She will discuss recent work with Moann Stock on the late Cenozoic deformation budget for Western North America and its comparison to global rigid plate reconstructions.

Biography
Dr. Tanya Atwater was educated at MIT, UC Berkeley, and Scripps Institute of Oceanography, earning her PhD in 1972. She was a professor at MIT, then joined the UCSB faculty in 1980.

Atwater's research in tectonics has taken her to the bottoms of the oceans and to mountains on many continents. She is especially well known for her works on the plate tectonic history of western North America and the San Andreas fault system. Atwater teaches geology and tectonics at all levels, and is deeply involved in public education, working with the media, museums, and teachers to bring Earth information and excitement to all. Atwater serves on numerous national and international committees. She is a fellow of various professional societies, a co-winner of the AAAS Newcomb Cleveland Prize, and was elected to the National Academy of Sciences in 1997.

In 2002, Dr. Atwater was awarded an NSF Director's Award for Distinguished Teaching Scholars. With this funding she established the UCSB Educational Multimedia Visualization Center, which produces education geo-animations and visualizations. Her animations can be downlodaded for educational use and/or you can visit the Center and create your own. Go to http://emvc.geol.ucsb.edu/ for downloads and information.

Abstract
New efforts to understand the role of partial melts in orogeny are motivated by recent geophysical results from contemporary orogens, such as the Andes and the Himalayas/Tibet, that indicate extensive presence of melt in the middle crust. The best opportunities to investigate the processes of melt formation and behavior of partial-melt rich rocks come from old, deeply exhumed orogens, such as the Proterozoic of the Southwest USA, and from migmatitic gneiss domes that are a common element of most orogens.

This talk presents results from Proterozoic gneisses of the Wet Mountains of Colorado and from the Fosdick Mountains gneiss dome in West Antarctica. The Wet Mountains preserve evidence of circa 1.4 Ga tectonism and high temperature metamorphism at intermediate crustal levels, which led to melt accumulation and potentially to development of an orogenic plateau. In the Fosdick Mountains dome, formed along the Cretaceous active margin of Gondwana between 101-94 Ma, dynamic fabrics, decompression features, and a rapid thermal evolution suggest tectonically controlled diapirac emplacement. In both locations, geophysical data complement findings from field structural geology in the effort to determine the regional extent and kinematic context for high temperature metamorphism and partial melting. The aim of the research is to determine the thermal and mechanical significance of partially molten material at depth in the crust and its ability to flow long distances laterally or vertically.

Biography
Christine Siddoway is a structural geologist and associate professor of geology at Colorado College, with research interests in the Proterozoic evolution of the Southwest U.S., Laramide structures of the Colorado Front Range, and the tectonic development of West Antarctica. Regional investigation in Antarctica integrates field structural geology and airborne geophysics, as a means to gain maximum information on crustal scale structures despite the extensive glacial cover. Both brittle and ductile realms of deformation have research appeal, but a lasting fascination for Christine is with migmatites and the behavior of partially melted rocks subject to dynamic conditions in orogenic belts.

Abstract
The coda of a waveform consists of that part of the signal after the directly arriving phases. In a finite medium, or in one that is strongly heterogeneous, the late time coda is dominated by waves which have repeatedly sampled the medium. Small changes in a medium which might have no detectable influence on the first arrivals may be amplified by this repeated sampling and thus made visible in the coda. We refer to this use of multiple-sampling coda waveforms as
Coda Wave Interferometry.

We have exploited ultrasonic coda waves to monitor time-varying rock-properties in a laboratory environment. We have also studied the dependence of velocity on uni-axial
stress in Berea sandstone, the non-linear temperature dependence of velocity in granite and the change in velocity due to an increase of water saturation in sandstone. On a slightly larger scale, we are using hammer-source seismic waves to monitor stress changes in the Edgar Mine (Idaho Springs). Last but not least, we use broadband seismic data, recorded at the Mt. Erebus volcano (Antarctica) to monitor changes in the subsurface of the volcano.

Alex Gret Biography
After my college years at College Ste-Croix in Fribourg, Switzerland, I earned my Masters in geophysics at ETH Zurich in 1997. I then switched fields and worked for a civil engineering company (Ziegler Consultants), mostly interested in the dynamical problems of structures, like eigen-modes of bridges or noise problems in buildings induced by vibrations from passing trains and trucks. In 1999, I was back in geophysics with WesternGeco in Denver, Colorado, and joined the Colorado School of Mines for my PhD in 2000. Since then, I have been part of the Center for Wave Phenomena and also closely work with faculty and students in the Physical Acoustics Laboratory.

Nicole Pendrigh
MSc Candidate
Resevoir Characterization Project, CSM
Thursday, April 29, 2004

Abstract
The Reservoir Characterization Project at the Colorado School of Mines has acquired multicomponent time-lapse data at Weyburn Field to monitor the CO2 flood for enhanced recovery. Using the time-lapse data, geophysically rendered maps of the field have been created. Although specific attributes aid in the interpretation of certain shapes or anomalies that may be associated with the CO2, questions about specific geology remain unanswered. By studying cores and logs, a detailed geologic model can be generated. The model will provide a local geologic focus for correlation to the seismic interpretations.

In the Vuggy, the vertical and lateral distribution of shoal versus intershoal shows that the shoals are not interconnected and are separated by intershoal muds. Earlier fracture analysis combined with first-hand observations of the cores indicates that the intershoals are more likely to be fractured. Therefore, although the intershoals are less porous and permeable, fractures may act as conduits from one shoal to another. The contact between the Marly and Vuggy may be an exposure surface with drastically different porosity and permeability values preventing fluid flow from one zone to another. Another contributing factor to poor flow is the presence of anhydrite. Many vugs and fractures have been cemented by anhydrite, and it is common in the shoal facies in the lower Vuggy (where porosities are highest) to find replacement metasomatic anhydrite filling fractures and permeating outwards into the matrix.

A preliminary analysis of some seismic attributes shows some possible geologic interpretations. For example, within the Marly zone, an interval of thinly interbedded limestone and dolomite at one well, and a 20 ft thick interval of massive, bioturbated skeletal dolostone at another well are both situated in areas with different p-wave amplitude anomalies. Also, change in p-wave acoustic impedance maps indicate that the CO2 is not entering the Marly, rather it is finding a pathway (possibly through vertical fractures) that is allowing the fluids to migrate downwards in to the underlying Frobisher beds, which compares to the oil stain seen below the Frobisher contact; evidence that there is no fluid barrier at that well.

To integrate geology and geophysics, rock properties known at each well location can then be cross-plotted with seismic attributes. If linear trends are produced, then there is a direct relationship between the geology and the specific attribute. This will lead to a more accurate interpretation of ambiguous anomalies.

Nicole Pendrigh Biography
I was born and raised in Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada. I received my bachelor's degree in Geology at the University of Saskatchewan in Saskatoon. When RCP was acquiring their first monitor survey at Weyburn Filed, Tom Davis invited some U of S students to Weyburn to learn about multicomponent time-lapse seismic acquisition. I came to Colorado School of Mines to do reservoir characterization and interpretation of Weyburn Field. While pursuing my Master's degree, I spent the summer of 2003 in Houston at Anadarko interpreting pay sands within in a shale body, becoming very familiar with the petroleum exploration industry. I am currently involved in my thesis research, and I am working as a geo-technician at Williams Production in Denver.